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Prediction for CME (2024-06-01T20:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-01T20:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31269/-1
CME Note: A CME to the SE with a complex uneven (pointy) front that comes on the heels of and overlaps with the preceding (2024-06-01T19:12Z) halo CME. There might also be an fainter wider front associated with it as well but the identification of it is hard because of the outflows following the 2024-06-01T19:12Z CME. The source of this CME could be the M7.3 flare from Active Region 3697 (S20E21) peaking at 2024-06-01T19:40Z and an associated eruption signified by post-eruptive arcades and a somewhat more eastern dimming centered very approximately around (S20E25). From Carlos Perez Alanis (LASSOS team): Possible arrival signature of this CME is likely blended with/directly follows the arrival of an expected coronal hole high speed stream around 2024-06-03T20:43Z. The ICME shock is possibly seen around 2024-06-03T21:00Z, while the arrival of the flux rope is likely seen around 2024-06-03T21:30Z, where the Betta parameter (e.g. in Wind daily solar wind survey) drops. The possible end of the flux-rope is possibly around 2024-06-05T6Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-03T21:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-04T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
From SIDC URSIGRAM 40602
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jun 2024, 1236UT
...

Coronal mass ejections: Two halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been
observed in LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery. The first was a full halo CME
first detected from 19:00 UTC June 01 in LASCO/C2 data. Initially reported
to be associated with the X1 flare, this CME may in fact likely be related
to a back-sided event and will therefore not impact Earth. 

A second narrower partial halo CME directed to the south-east can be seen from 20:00 UTC June 01 in LASCO/C2 data. This is likely associated with the M7.3 flare
with peak time 19:39 UTC June 01 and associated with Type II and Type Iv
radio emissions. Preliminary analysis suggests that these CME will have an
Earth directed component and may impact Earth from early on June 04, but
further analysis is ongoing.


CME arrival message id="467", Event id="416" 
expected arrival time: 2024-06-04T13:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 3
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 40





  
  
    
    
      
        
        
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
            
              
              
              sidctech@oma.be
              
              
              2024-06-03T08:24:32
              
              
              416
              
              0
              
              CME_arrival
            
            
              
              
                
                
              
              
                
                
                
                
                
                
              
              
            
            
              
              
                
                
                
                  
                  
                    
                      
                        2024-06-04T13:00:00
Lead Time: 13.27 hour(s)
Difference: -15.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-06-03T08:24Z
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